The race is officially on for Texas’ 18th Congressional District, a contest drawing wide attention as both a pivotal political seat and one of several districts at the center of a proposed mid-decade redistricting plan backed by the Trump and Abbott administrations. Critics of the effort warn that the redrawing of maps could dilute the political power of communities of color.

A recent survey conducted by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston reveals a highly competitive field ahead of the November 2025 special election. The poll shows Democratic candidates Christian Menefee and Amanda Edwards tied at the top with 19% support each, followed closely by Republican Carmen Maria Montiel and Democrat Jolanda Jones, each polling at 14%. Independent George Foreman IV and Democrat Isaiah Martin trail with 4% and 3% respectively, while 27% of likely voters remain undecided.

The poll, based on a representative sample of 400 likely TX-18 voters, shows that while several candidates enjoy favorable ratings, name recognition remains a challenge across the board. Amanda Edwards and Christian Menefee led net favorability ratings at +30%, while Jolanda Jones followed at +11%. Republican Carmen Maria Montiel received the lowest name recognition and net favorability, with 78% of voters unsure about her and a 0% net favorability rating.

Demographically, the survey found that Black voters—who make up 42% of the district’s likely electorate—are mostly split between Menefee (24%), Edwards (21%), and Jones (21%). Republican Montiel garners significant support among White voters (21%) and Republicans (62%), while more than half of her supporters admit they do not yet know much about her, suggesting party affiliation plays a key role in early support.

Among the crowded Democratic field, one candidate is making financial waves. Zoe Cadore, who was not included among the six highest-profile candidates polled, has nonetheless reported a strong campaign fundraising performance—amassing $239,235.77 in total contributions, with $224,485.77 coming from individual donors.

As the race unfolds, the outcome will not only determine who succeeds the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee but may also serve as a broader bellwether for political engagement and voting rights challenges in the state.

This seat was previously held by two prominent Houston political figures: the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee and the late Rep. Sylvester Turner.

Read full University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs survey here:  tx18.pdf