Five months ahead of the March 2026 Texas primary, incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. John Cornyn is essentially tied with challenger Attorney General Ken Paxton, according to a new University of Houston survey. Cornyn received support from 33% of likely Republican primary voters, while Paxton polled at 34%. U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, who recently announced his candidacy, trailed with 22%.

The survey also examined the Republican attorney general race, showing U.S. Rep. Chip Roy with a commanding lead at 40%, followed by state Sen. Joan Huffman at 12%, former assistant attorney general Aaron Reitz at 8%, and state Sen. Mayes Middleton at 3%, with 37% undecided.

On the Democratic side of the Senate race, former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred holds a narrow lead over state Rep. James Talarico among declared candidates. However, if U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke enter the race, Crockett leads the field with 31%, while O’Rourke and Talarico each receive 25%, and Allred drops to 13%.

The survey indicates a decline in support for former President Donald Trump in Texas. While 56% of respondents said they voted for Trump in 2024, only 49% said they would do so today, with a sharper drop among Latino voters. Despite this, Trump remains influential in Republican primaries, with roughly half of GOP voters saying his endorsement would matter in the Senate race and 56% in the attorney general’s race.

Other findings include strong Republican support for Gov. Greg Abbott and Sen. Ted Cruz, both at 84%, and a narrowing lead for Trump over former Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical 2025 presidential matchup. The survey also highlighted low name recognition for Hunt and Talarico among voters.

The survey of 1,650 registered Texas voters was conducted between September 19 and October 1, 2025, in English and Spanish, with a margin of error of ±2.41%. The full report is available on the University of Houston Hobby School website.